Digital Disruption and Democratic Distrust: Internet Shutdowns, Social Media Use, and Institutional Trust in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Government-imposed internet shutdowns are a recurrent feature of political life across sub-Saharan Africa, yet their relationship to citizen trust in state institutions remains poorly understood. Using Afrobarometer Round 9 data (N = 35,799; 35 countries) merged with shutdown records and governance indicators, this study estimates whether shutdown exposure moderates the association between digital media use and institutional trust. Multilevel models show internet use is negatively associated with trust in core institutions (β = -0.025, p < 0.001), and social media news consumption has a similar association (β = -0.035, p < 0.001). This association is larger in shutdown countries: each standard deviation increase in internet use is associated with an additional 0.059-unit decline in trust (p < 0.001). These results suggest connectivity restrictions do not protect regime legitimacy among digitally connected citizens, though the cross-sectional design does not permit causal inference.